Is County information about where dogs were walked useless?

Which would you rather be told? That a dog had died of Alabama Rot WHERE YOU WALK your dog. OR just – that the dog was walked in your COUNTY? This was the question (4) I asked on the Facebook New Forest Pathogen Killing Dogs site.

David Walker from Anderson Moores Veterinary Specialists (AMVS) confirms that CRGV could be caused by an environmental trigger. In December 2014 he said:

“Although an environmental trigger has been proposed as the possible cause of CRGV this has not been proven.” (1a)

Until an environmental trigger has been EXCLUDED, I think AMVS should publish the exact location (i.e. dog walked from A to B or dog walked in village X) of all twenty four blue county case markers on the alabamarot.co.uk map between November 2012 to 12th March 2015: http://alabamarot.co.uk/alabama-rot-uk-cases-map/

If AMVS just publish County information (eg Hampshire) this could worry a lot more people than if AMVS gave ‘specific’ walk information (eg dog always walked from Lymington to Beaulieu or dog walked in Lymington). County information is for all practical purposes of little use whilst specific walk location information might mean people avoid walking dogs in those locations, if that is possible or practical. If the environmental trigger CRGV theory is correct, this could possibly save the life of their dog. If the environmental trigger theory is incorrect – and CRGV has a genetic cause – then people would have wasted money and time commuting to an area where Alabama Rot had not been reported.

David at AMVS on 29th January 2015 said:

‘The Forestry Commission are no longer hosting a table with the exact geographical location of cases.’ (1)

This lack of hosting a table by Forestry Commission appears to have been the cue for Anderson Moores not to reveal specific areas (walk/village/town) that dogs were walked prior to contracting Alabama Rot in the New Forest. They just now give ‘by county’ information. The 29th January 2015 update said:

“There have been six further confirmed cases of cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (CRGV) over the past few weeks (Hampshire, Greater London, Dorset, Berkshire, Kent and East Sussex). (1)

Was the Hampshire case in the New Forest? Or in my village? We are not told.

“At this stage we do not know for certain if there is an environmental trigger for CRGV.” (1)

David said:

“Indeed, if there is an environmental trigger we do not know when, in relation to the development of clinical signs, this occurs (e.g. environmental exposure could occur one day, one week, or one month before clinical signs develop).” (1)

This is important new information published by AMVS for the first time. Perhaps some dog owners had been assuming that Alabama Rot was triggered at the last place the dog had been walked? This is not necessarily the case.

David continues:

“Any information posted about geographical location may therefore not be that relevant given dogs are often walked in different areas.” (1)

It would be easy to ask owners where they had walked their dog up to one month before their dog contracted Alabama Rot. The walk locations could be logged on a map.

David said:

Updates and further information will continue to be posted on this webpage with the broad geographical location of cases.’ (1)

A week later David Walker of AMVS on 3rd February 2015 said:

“Please rest assured that if we become aware of two or more dogs that become affected by CRGV that have been walked on the same route in a precise geographical location this information will be publicised.” (2/2a)

If a dog becomes affected by CRGV in my village and I’m only told that the case is in Dorset then I would continue to walk my dog in my village. However my dog might then get Alabama Rot – and I would be devastated!! If however I was told that a dog becomes affected by CRGV in my village then I would not continue to walk my dog in my village (I can easily go down to the coast) – and my dog might not get Alabama Rot (assuming there is an environmental cause).

In my view, dog owners should be told immediately the specific locations that dogs with Alabama Rot have walked. The dog owner will then have the information to avoid an area if he/she so chooses.

The epidemiology team at the Animal Health Trust continue to work on the data supplied via the owner questionnaires (http://www.aht.org.uk/cms-display/aki.html). They are currently writing a scientific document which they will publish on the epidemiology of this dreadful disease. To date none of the important information provided in the questionnaires has led us to believe that visiting a particular walking route has led to the development of the disease. This does not mean an environmental trigger has been excluded; however, without scientific evidence that a particular walking route in a particular location is a problem, publicising a specific area is of little benefit.” (2/2a)

For example instead of reporting ‘Lymington’ (a reasonably precise location i.e. village/town) – the county of Hampshire, a broad geographical location – is reported by AMVS.

I disagree with David Walker when he says ‘publicising a specific area is of little benefit.’ This means that only when a second Alabama Rot case is reported will the specific area be published of the first case in an that area. Assuming their is an environmental trigger for Alabama Rot, at least one further dog death could occur, which might have been avoided by publishing the specific area in the first case, when it was first known about (when only the ‘broad’ area i.e. county, was actually published).

On the alabamarot.co.uk map, over the past 2+ years (November 2012 to 12th March 2015) twenty four confirmed cases of Alabama Rot/CRGV are listed under a broad geographical location (by county – blue markers) and thirty one confirmed cases have been identified by a specific location (village/town – red markers). (3)

I propose:

a) all vets should be requested to ask dog owners where the dog had been walked (dates and start and finish locations of walks) – not just by village/town – for walks up to a month before contracting Alabama Rot.
b) the specific walk information should be immediately published nationally to advise dog owners and researchers.
c) conversion of all county location ‘blue drop’ markers on the alabamarot.co.uk map to specific location ‘red drop’ markers . This will be possible if AMVS publish specific locations rather than county locations – and this practise would continue until the ‘environmental trigger’ CRGV theory has been falsified.

Freedom of Information Request

On 31 January I made a ‘Freedom of Information’ request to the Forestry Commission asking the precise locations of the six dogs (published as: Hampshire, Greater London, Dorset, Berkshire, Kent and East Sussex) who had Alabama Rot/CRGV confirmed by AMVS on 29th January 2015. The Forestry Commission replied on 6th February:

Dear Mr Street,
Thank you for your enquiry of 31 January 2015 via Facebook.

All cases of cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (CRGV) including their geographical location should be reported to Anderson Moores and they update information on their website http://www.andersonmoores.com/vet/news/ We have regular contact with Anderson Moores and should any confirmed cases have a proven scientific connection to a dog walk on the Public Forest Estate, the Forestry Commission will inform visitors of specific sites.

Yours sincerely, FE England Enquiries
Forestry Commission England
England, FE <FE.England@forestry.gsi.gov.uk>

From: Chris Street
Sent: 17 February 2015 09:58
To: England, FE
Subject: RE: Freedom of Information Act enquiry

Dear FE England Enquiries,

Many thanks for your reply of 6^th February. I will take this matter up with Anderson Moores.

>should any confirmed cases have a proven scientific connection to a dog walk on the Public >Forest Estate, the Forestry Commission will inform visitors of specific sites.

What do you mean by a ‘proven scientific connection’? Is this when the walks of two CRGV confirmed dogs intersect?

Best Regards, Chris Street

From: England, FE [mailto:FE.England@forestry.gsi.gov.uk]
Sent: 19 February 2015 13:43
To: Chris Street
Subject: RE: Freedom of Information Act enquiry

Dear Mr Street

To clarify the definition mentioned in the last email: we mean there is scientific proof that the dog had CRGV and it was contracted from a specific place.

I hope this helps,

Yours sincerely, FE England Enquiries, Forestry Commission England

Facebook Comments

(1a) update December 2014 http://www.andersonmoores.com/vet/news/ (accessed 16th February 2015)
(1) update 27th January 2015 http://www.andersonmoores.com/vet/news/ (accessed 16th February 2015)(2) https://www.facebook.com/VetSpecialists/posts/774076955993810?comment_id=776268905774615&offset=0&total_comments=12 (accessed 12th March 2015)
(2a) (duplicates (2) in case that post is deleted) http://alabamarot.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/David-Walker-AMVS-2nd-Case-specific-location.pdf (accessed 12th March 2015)
(3) http://alabamarot.co.uk/alabama-rot-uk-cases-map/ (accessed 11th March 2015)
(4) https://www.facebook.com/newforestpathogenkillingdogs/posts/883812098326616 (accessed 12th March 2015)