90% Alabama Rot Dog Deaths in Winter or Spring

Over four years, 90% of Alabama Rot cases happen in Winter or Spring. This suggests that the trigger for Alabama Rot is an environmental factor such as low temperature or high rainfall.

After four and a half years (December 2012 to April 2017) the 95 Confirmed (see Note 1) Alabama Rot cases were split: 89% in Winter (44%) or Spring (45%) (see Note 3). 11% cases were in  Summer (3%) and Autumn (8%).

The ~90: 10 Winter-Spring: Summer-Autumn split suggests that Alabama Rot is triggered by an environmental factor that varies between seasons eg temperature or rainfall or some other seasonal factor.

A year ago in May 2016, I analysed 75 Confirmed Alabama Rot dog cases over three and a half years (December 2012 to April 2016). The pattern of cases was similar: 89% cases in Winter (38%) or Spring (51%); 11% cases were in Summer (4%) or Autumn (7%).

Alabama Rot Confirmed Cases, by Month & Year

All ‘Confirmed‘ cases are advised by Anderson Moores Veterinary Specialists. I’ve logged these cases on the AlabamaRot.co.uk confirmed cases UK map since 2012. The 95 confirmed cases by month and year (December 2012-April 2017) are shown in the table and graphs below:

Between 2013 – 2017 there was a wide range in numbers of Alabama Rot cases in the peak months of February and March:

Confirmed Alabama Rot cases in Peak Months
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
Feb 1 10 1 5 2 19
Mar 2 6 1 2 8 19

Alabama Rot Confirmed Cases, by Month

When the 95 monthly cases between December 2012 and April 2017 are summed, the Alabama Rot ‘season’ starts in December (9 cases) with cases peaking in February (19) and March (19); and declining in April (12) and May (12). During the six months (June to November) of Summer and Autumn, there have been 10 confirmed cases in 4 years.

Alabama Rot Confirmed Cases, by Season

When cases are plotted by season, 89% of cases are split 50:50 between Winter (44%, 42 cases)  and Spring (45%, 43 cases). Only 11% of cases are in Summer (3%, 3 cases) or Autumn (8%, 7 cases).

The seasons are defined by the MetOffice as spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November) and winter (December, January, February). https://goo.gl/N5InAI

Seasonality Suggests a Winter-Spring Environmental Factor triggers Alabama Rot

Could an environmental trigger of Alabama Rot be rainfall, temperature or some other seasonal factor?

UK Rainfall

Maps by MetOffice.

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

UK Mean Temperatures

Maps by MetOffice.

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Chris Street BSc MSc

AlabamaRot.co.uk

Bransgore, Dorset

Notes

(1) Confirmed cases are dogs in whom cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (CRGV) was suspected and renal thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) was histopathologically confirmed after the dog died.

(2) Suspected cases (with further location information about Confirmed cases) are logged on a second AlabamaRot.co.uk map – the AlabamaRot.co.uk ‘All Cases’ map.

(3) The seasons are defined by the MetOffice as spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November) and winter (December, January, February).

 

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