99.99% of dogs walked in New Forest will not die of Alabama Rot

If you walk your dog in the New Forest there is a 99.99% chance it will NOT die of Alabama Rot aka CRGV (Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy).

The Forestry Commission remind us that:

“Many thousands of dogs are walked in the countryside every day and it is important to remember that only a very small number of dogs have been affected [by CRGV].” (1)

A report by England Marketing for the Forestry Commission in 2005 suggested:

“in addition to the 37,600 dogs which regularly walk in the New Forest, it is estimated that there are a further 600,000* dog visits per year.” (2) A total of 637,600 dogs walked in New Forest in 2005.

*There were 7.5m visitor days to New Forest in 2005 – Tourism South East estimates that 8% bring their dogs, so 600,000 dog visits per year (2) Figures for visitors to New Forest in 2013/14 are unavailable.

In two years (December 2012 – December 2014) twenty two dogs died of Alabama Rot in the New Forest: sixteen confirmed (red drops) and six unconfirmed (red triangles).  Six unconfirmed dogs survived Alabama Rot (red circles) – see map below. (3)

new-forest-crgv

637,600 dogs walked in 2005 in the New Forest. Over a two year period between December 2012 and December 2014 twenty two died of Alabama Rot. So 1 in 14,490 dogs walked in the New Forest died of Alabama Rot (637,600 / 22 / 2).

If CRGV has an environmental cause, the more dogs walked in the New Forest, the larger might be the number of cases of CRGV. Note: the greatest number of cases of CRGV are in the rectangle between Ringwood, Brockenhurst, Sway and Bransgore (see map above).

From the frequency of dog walkers (map below). (2)

dog-walkers-new-forest (1)

Assumptions

1) The same number of dogs were walked in 2005 and 2013/2014
2) All dog deaths from Alabama Rot are recorded.

Summary

Between December 2012 and December 2014, around than 1 in 14,500 dogs walked in the New Forest, died of CRGV. 99.99% of dogs walked in the New Forest did not die of CRGV.

References

(1) Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy (CRGV or ‘Alabama Rot’), Forestry Commission http://www.forestry.gov.uk/alabamarot (accessed 4th February 2015)
(2) Forestry Commission –Dog Walkers, England Marketing, 2005, http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/new-forest-dog-study.pdf/$file/new-forest-dog-study.pdf
(3) Alabama Rot Google Map by Chris Street
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA

4 Replies to “99.99% of dogs walked in New Forest will not die of Alabama Rot”

    1. Jackie,
      Personally I too won’t take the risk to walk my dog in the New Forest between November and June – even though the risk is negligible.

      Scientists have not ruled out an environmental trigger and the New Forest does seem to have a cluster of CRGV cases.

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