If you walk your dog in the New Forest there is a 99.99% chance it will NOT die of Alabama Rot aka CRGV (Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy).
The Forestry Commission remind us that:
“Many thousands of dogs are walked in the countryside every day and it is important to remember that only a very small number of dogs have been affected [by CRGV].” (1)
A report by England Marketing for the Forestry Commission in 2005 suggested:
“in addition to the 37,600 dogs which regularly walk in the New Forest, it is estimated that there are a further 600,000* dog visits per year.” (2) A total of 637,600 dogs walked in New Forest in 2005.
*There were 7.5m visitor days to New Forest in 2005 – Tourism South East estimates that 8% bring their dogs, so 600,000 dog visits per year (2) Figures for visitors to New Forest in 2013/14 are unavailable.
In two years (December 2012 – December 2014) twenty two dogs died of Alabama Rot in the New Forest: sixteen confirmed (red drops) and six unconfirmed (red triangles). Six unconfirmed dogs survived Alabama Rot (red circles) – see map below. (3)
637,600 dogs walked in 2005 in the New Forest. Over a two year period between December 2012 and December 2014 twenty two died of Alabama Rot. So 1 in 14,490 dogs walked in the New Forest died of Alabama Rot (637,600 / 22 / 2).
If CRGV has an environmental cause, the more dogs walked in the New Forest, the larger might be the number of cases of CRGV. Note: the greatest number of cases of CRGV are in the rectangle between Ringwood, Brockenhurst, Sway and Bransgore (see map above).
From the frequency of dog walkers (map below). (2)
1) The same number of dogs were walked in 2005 and 2013/2014
2) All dog deaths from Alabama Rot are recorded.
Between December 2012 and December 2014, around than 1 in 14,500 dogs walked in the New Forest, died of CRGV. 99.99% of dogs walked in the New Forest did not die of CRGV.
(1) Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy (CRGV or ‘Alabama Rot’), Forestry Commission http://www.forestry.gov.uk/alabamarot (accessed 4th February 2015)
(2) Forestry Commission –Dog Walkers, England Marketing, 2005, http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/new-forest-dog-study.pdf/$file/new-forest-dog-study.pdf
(3) Alabama Rot Google Map by Chris Street